The €30 Million Enigma: How Evann Guessand Could Be Aston Villa’s Strategic Stroke of Genius

As the Premier League season draws ever closer, the air around Aston Villa`s Bodymoor Heath training ground is thick not just with the scent of freshly cut grass, but with an intriguing blend of anticipation and calculated patience. While many clubs are splashing cash with the abandon of a child in a candy store, Villa has been navigating the choppy waters of the summer transfer window with a distinct, almost understated, strategy. The question on every claret and blue faithful`s mind: will Unai Emery finally unveil a marquee first-team signing?

A Calculated Approach to Transfers

So far, Villa’s summer acquisitions have been prudent, albeit not headline-grabbing for the senior squad. There`s been the promising teenager Yasin Özcan, immediately loaned out to Anderlecht, alongside the experienced Marco Bizot and young winger Zépiqueno Redmond on free transfers. This measured approach, as noted by football pundits, isn`t born of indecision but rather a strategic necessity, a dance around the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

In a league where fiscal prudence is now as crucial as tactical brilliance, Aston Villa finds itself operating on a financial tightrope. Their transfer activity has been described as “opportunistic,” a strategy that served them well in January when they secured talents like Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio on loan. Both players, however, have since moved on – Rashford to Barcelona, and Asensio unlikely to return to Villa Park. This leaves Emery with a clear mandate: replace the firepower lost and bolster the squad without breaking the bank or, more accurately, the PSR threshold.

The Rise of Evann Guessand: Villa`s New Target

The pursuit of attacking reinforcements has inevitably led to a flurry of speculation. Yet, amidst the noise, one name has steadily risen to prominence: Evann Guessand. The whisper turned into a roar when reports surfaced that Aston Villa had not only joined the race to sign the Ivorian forward but were prepared to outbid Crystal Palace, who had long been considered the front-runners. Then, the confirmation arrived from transfer guru Fabrizio Romano: a “verbal agreement” has been reached with OGC Nice, with a reported bid of around €30 million (£26 million) plus add-ons.

Guessand, at 24 years old, is hardly an unknown quantity, but his ascent to prominence has been a steady, deliberate climb. A product of Nice’s academy since the age of 15, he’s spent time honing his craft on loan spells with Lausanne-Sport in Switzerland and then Nantes in Ligue 1. It was at Nantes where he truly began to turn heads, scoring five goals, including a memorable stoppage-time winner against Olympiacos in the Europa League – a moment that undoubtedly sent ripples of excitement through the Stade de la Beaujoire.

His return to Nice for the past two seasons has seen him solidify his status as a pivotal figure. From six goals in 2023/24, he dramatically increased his output to 12 goals in the most recent campaign, playing a significant role in Franck Haise’s side securing a top-four finish and a shot at Champions League qualification. Villa’s acquisition, if finalized, would see him become only the second Ivorian to don the claret and blue, following in the footsteps of Jonathan Kodjia. A small historical footnote, perhaps, but one that speaks to the club’s expanding global scouting reach.

Numbers Game: Beyond the Raw Data

A closer look at Guessand`s statistics from his standout 2024/25 Ligue 1 season reveals why he`s garnered such attention. He’s not just a goalscorer; he`s an all-around attacking threat:

These numbers paint a compelling picture. Guessand’s ability to exceed his Expected Goals (xG) by nearly three indicates a clinical edge and efficient finishing. His high rankings in both goals and assists highlight his direct contribution to scoring, but it`s the underlying creative metrics that truly stand out. Being in the top 25 for shot-creating actions and top 10 for goal-creating actions underscores his role as a genuine chance creator. Furthermore, his impressive number of attempted take-ons and progressive carries demonstrate his eagerness to drive forward with the ball, challenging defenders and advancing play.

The “Fernandes-esque” Tag: A Fair Comparison?

Perhaps the most intriguing appraisal comes from Alex Barker of The Athletic, who boldly labels Guessand “Bruno Fernandes-esque.” This is a lofty comparison, indeed, conjuring images of a dynamic, all-encompassing attacking midfielder. Barker describes him as a “real physical handful,” yet also “agile,” capable of creating “high-quality chances.” The paradox of his physique and agility is echoed by Venkatanarayanan of Total Football Analysis, who notes his surprising effectiveness as a “good dribbler” despite his 6 ft 2 in (188 cm) frame. Mohamed Fathall of Breaking the Lines adds that Guessand “thrives when able to support a central striker,” consistently “looking to take on defenders” and using “intelligent movement” to find goal-scoring positions.

If these assessments hold true, then Guessand is not merely a striker but a versatile forward with a comprehensive skill set. His blend of physicality, agility, dribbling ability, and playmaking vision strongly suggests a player who can operate across the front line, linking play and exploiting defensive gaps. This multi-faceted profile is precisely what would make him such a valuable asset for Unai Emery’s tactical system, which thrives on intelligent movement and fluid attacking transitions.

The Ollie Watkins Connection: A Partnership Forged in Tactics?

This is where the “dream for Watkins” truly begins to materialize. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa`s prolific frontman, has consistently reached double figures for goals in his Premier League campaigns, a testament to his dedication and Emery`s coaching. As documented by Ahmed Walid, Watkins’ goal-scoring surge under Emery was partly attributed to the manager`s guidance to remain more central, within the width of the penalty area, to maximize his finishing opportunities.

Enter Evann Guessand. With his proven ability to create “big chances” (12 in Ligue 1 last term, according to SofaScore), his preference to “support a central striker,” and his capacity for intelligent movement and dribbling, Guessand appears tailor-made to complement Watkins. He can draw defenders, deliver precise passes, and create space for Watkins to exploit. The synergy could be immense, with Guessand’s creative flair providing the much-needed ammunition for Watkins to elevate his already impressive goal tally.

A Strategic Bet with High Stakes

Aston Villa`s pursuit of Evann Guessand, amidst the constraints of PSR, is a testament to their calculated strategy. It`s not a panic buy, but a targeted investment in a player whose profile perfectly aligns with Unai Emery’s vision and the needs of the existing squad, particularly Ollie Watkins. The £26 million price tag, while substantial for an “opportunistic” signing, reflects the potential for a player who, if the “Bruno Fernandes-esque” comparisons hold even a fraction of truth, could become a pivotal figure at Villa Park.

As the Premier League campaign kicks off, all eyes will be on Evann Guessand. Can he adapt to the rigours of English football? Will his statistical prowess translate? And most importantly, will he unlock an even higher level of performance for Ollie Watkins, turning a strategic bet into a stroke of genius? Only time will tell, but for now, the future looks creatively charged for Aston Villa.